REVEALED: Man United's chances of making the Champions League last-16

REVEALED: Manchester United’s chances of making the Champions League last-16 as Erik ten Hag’s side prepare for daunting Galatasaray trip… and do they have more hope than Newcastle?

  • Manchester United have it all to do in Group A as they make trip to Istanbul
  • Newcastle also find themselves propping up their Champions League group
  • Was Garnacho’s overhead kick REALLY the greatest ever? It’s All Kicking Off 

Manchester United have just a one-in-three chance of making it through to the Champions League knockouts – but are assessed as having better prospects than Newcastle.

Erik ten Hag’s side are currently bottom of Group A and must win a daunting away fixture with Turkish club Galatasaray on Wednesday night to keep alive their last-16 chances.

According to Nielsen Gracenote’s Euro Club Index, United have just a 33 per cent chance of taking second spot behind Bayern Munich from here and playing in Europe’s leading competition after Christmas.

It doesn’t help that United, who have lost three of their four matches so far, have to play table-toppers Bayern on matchday six in what could yet be a must-win game.

Gracenote rank Galatasaray as having a slightly better 37 per cent chance of making the last-16, while Copenhagen, who are currently second in the table, are given just a 30 per cent probability.

Harry Maguire, Sofyan Amrabat and Andre Onana cut dejected figures as Manchester United crashed to a 4-3 defeat to Copenhagen in their last Champions League outing

Newcastle United have it all to do after home and away losses to Borussia Dortmund 

Both Man United’s Erik ten Hag (left) and Newcastle’s Eddie Howe (right) realise making the knockout rounds could be a tall order from bottom of the group

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Newcastle also find themselves bottom of a much tougher group ahead of Tuesday night’s away game with Paris Saint-Germain.

But with four points to their credit, Eddie Howe’s team are just three points behind group leaders Borussia Dortmund.

However, they’re not fancied to progress by Gracenote, who give the Toon a meagre 23 per cent chance of making the knockout rounds.

Dortmund (74 per cent), PSG (70 per cent) and AC Milan (33 per cent) are all calculated to have better prospects than Newcastle, who will have to pull off something unexpected.

Manchester United are given a 34.4 per cent chance of finishing third and dropping into the Europa League, while Newcastle are rated at 26.2 per cent to do likewise.

With two rounds of group stage fixtures to play, only Manchester City, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Inter Milan, RB Leipzig and Real Sociedad are certain of a last-16 spot.

Five more clubs – Arsenal, Barcelona, Napoli, Atletico Madrid and Porto – are assessed as having a greater than 90 per cent chance of making it through.

Celtic, bottom of their group with just one point from a possible 12, are in the miracles required stage with a two per cent chance of getting through.

Manchester City won the Champions League last season and are favourites to lift it again

Arsenal are almost certain to make it through to the knockout rounds as they face Lens 

The chances of all the Champions League teams when it comes to making the knockouts

Each club’s prospects of making the last-16 or the UEFA Europa League by finishing third

Gracenote regard Manchester City as favourites to retain their Champions League crown

There is unlikely to be any Europa League salvation for the Bhoys, either, with Gracenote putting a third-place finish at just 3.2 per cent ahead of Tuesday’s away game with Lazio.

Defending champions Manchester City are given the highest probability of winning it again on 29 per cent.

Real Madrid are second favourites on 19 per cent and Bayern Munich third on 14 per cent. Arsenal come in on seven per cent, according to the Gracenote index.


It’s All Kicking Off is an exciting new podcast from Mail Sport that promises a different take on Premier League football, launching with a preview show today and every week this season.

It is available on MailOnline, Mail+, YouTube , Apple Music and Spotify

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