Week 12 NFL picks: Unanimous selections in all three Thanksgiving Day games; Eagles over Bills on Sunday

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NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict every game of the 2023 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their Week 12 picks below.

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NOTES:

THURSDAY, NOV. 23

  • WHERE: Ford Field (Detroit)
  • WHEN: 12:30 p.m. ET | FOX, FOX Deportes
  • MONEYLINE: Packers: +285 | Lions: -365
  • SPREAD: Lions -7.5 | O/U: 47.0

Why Tom is taking the Lions: The Packers showed some pep in their win over the fading Chargers, while the Lions had to fight to keep from being the fourth team to lose to the Bears this season. But I think Detroit has settled well enough into its role as divisional bully to weather whatever additional pluck Green Bay might bring on Thanksgiving. The Lions are now the heavies in this rivalry, with the veteran savvy to extend their win streak against the Packers to five — which would be their longest run of dominance in the series since taking 11 in a row between 1949 and 1954.

  • WHERE: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
  • WHEN: 4:30 p.m. ET | CBS
  • MONEYLINE: Commanders: +500 | Cowboys: -700
  • SPREAD: Cowboys -12.0 | O/U: 48.5

Why Tom is taking the Cowboys: Each season around this time, I begin to feel an increased sense of sympathy for the most-sacked quarterback in the league. This year, that is Sam Howell, who’s been sacked 51 times so far, putting him on track to set a single-season record. In games where he’s been sacked five-plus times this season, his TD-to-INT ratio sits at 7:7, and Washington has been outscored 157-105. The Cowboys have sacked the opposing QB five-plus times in just three games, but their scoring advantage (122-27) in those contests suggests a ready path for putting this one out of reach early.

  • WHERE: Lumen Field (Seattle)
  • WHEN: 8:20 p.m. ET | NBC, Telemundo
  • MONEYLINE: 49ers: -350 | Seahawks: +275
  • SPREAD: 49ers -7.0 | O/U: 44.0

Why Ali is taking the 49ers: Until the Seahawks stop with the self-inflicted errors, it will be hard to trust them against quality opponents. (And I really want to trust them!) Mix in a banged-up Geno Smith under center and an injured Kenny Walker likely on the sideline, and you have the makings of an unhappy holiday for the 12s. Although Kyle Shanahan has struggled against Pete Carroll in his career (including a 2-4 mark in Seattle), Brock Purdy is a perfect 2-0 against the ‘Hawks, and the dude is feeling it right now. Last week, he became the first quarterback since Drew Brees in 2018 to post a passer rating of 148 or more in back-to-back games. While this one gets away from Seattle, I suspect Carroll will be thankful he won’t have to wait too long for the rubber match against his NFC West rival — perhaps that time with his full complement of players.

FRIDAY, NOV. 24

  • WHERE: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, N.J.)
  • WHEN: 3 p.m. ET | Prime Video
  • MONEYLINE: Dolphins: -480 | Jets: +360
  • SPREAD: Dolphins -10.0 | O/U: 41.5

Why Gennaro is taking the Dolphins: For the most part, the Jets’ defense has performed admirably since Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles in New York’s first drive of the season, routinely giving opponents hell despite receiving minimal support from the offense. But in this past Sunday’s 32-6 loss at Buffalo, Gang Green’s better half appeared to buckle under the pressure of constantly carrying the team on its back. Sauce Gardner had one of his worst games as a pro, while Quinnen Williams was spotted expressing his frustration in an animated sideline rant. Now this overtaxed defense is tasked with stopping the league’s best offense, while its own attack is handing the keys to journeyman QB Tim Boyle. Talk about bringing a knife to a gunfight …

SUNDAY, NOV. 26

  • WHERE: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
  • WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | FOX
  • MONEYLINE: Saints: -110 | Falcons: -110
  • SPREAD: PICK | O/U: 42.0

Why Gennaro is taking the Saints: Does anyone want to win the NFC South? Like ever? One season after Tampa Bay took the division title with an 8-9 record, New Orleans sits alone in first place at 5-5. And this Sunday, the rival Falcons will look to drag the Saints into the sub-.500 muck inhabited by the rest of the division. But in a matchup of two middling teams, I’ll ride with the one unit that’s above average: New Orleans’ defense. The potential absence of Marshon Lattimore (ankle injury) hurts, but fellow CB Paulson Adebo is enjoying a breakout season. And let’s be honest: It’s hard to imagine Falcons coach Arthur Smith airing it out with reinstated starter Desmond Ridder in the first place.

  • WHERE: Paycor Stadium (Cincinnati)
  • WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
  • MONEYLINE: Steelers: -115 | Bengals: -105
  • SPREAD: Steelers -1.0 | O/U: 34.5

Why Ali is taking the Steelers: Difficult to predict how either of these two offenses function after the week they’ve had. There’s no replacing Joe Burrow, obviously, but the Bengals should take some solace in the fact Jake Browning didn’t completely fall on his face last week in relief of the Pro Bowler. The 27-year-old led two scoring drives (sandwiched around three three-and-outs) in the second half, with the latter being an eight-play series ending in a touchdown pass — garbage time aside, it’s at least something to hang his hat on as he heads into his first career start and third NFL game. That Browning has as many TD throws as Kenny Pickett over the last month explains the Steelers’ need for a new offensive voice. Will a different play-caller provide the spark Pittsburgh desperately desires? Will it matter against a Burrow-less Bengals squad? My guess is no to both. But for another week, the Steelers’ defense — and its proclivity for forcing fourth-quarter turnovers — picks up the slack, keeping Pittsburgh in the playoff picture.

  • WHERE: NRG Stadium (Houston)
  • WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
  • MONEYLINE: Jaguars: -130 | Texans: +110
  • SPREAD: Jaguars -1.5 | O/U: 48.5

Why Brooke is taking the Texans: There are few games more meaningful than this one on the Sunday slate. C.J. Stroud’s coming-out party came against Jacksonville earlier in the season, and I love the confidence the rookie’s playing with early in his career. So far, he’s won each game in which he’s tossed a pick, but he can’t expect that to always be the case. He must be on his Ps and Qs against a Jags team that has an opportunistic defense ready to pressure the QB; Mike Caldwell’s unit is a much better version of itself than the one Houston saw back in Week 3. Stroud stays sharp to sweep the division rival on the season.

  • WHERE: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
  • WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
  • MONEYLINE: Buccaneers: +118 | Colts: -140
  • SPREAD: Colts -2.5 | O/U: 44.0

Why Brooke is taking the Buccaneers: This is a battle of journeymen quarterbacks still hoping to make enough good plays to guide their respective teams to a playoff spot. With big-time playmakers at each QB’s disposal, it will come down to which one — Baker Mayfield or Gardner Minshew – has fewer giveaways. Coming off the bye week, the Colts have forced at least one turnover in every game this season, but I’m curious to see how franchise stalwart Shaq Leonard’s sudden release impacts the defense. Mayfield has played better statistically of late, but Tampa Bay’s defense has allowed 400-plus yards in four of the last five games. If the Bucs’ sixth-ranked run defense can stop Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss and force a turnover-prone quarterback to beat them, I think they right the ship.

  • WHERE: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, N.J.)
  • WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | FOX
  • MONEYLINE: Patriots: -160 | Giants: +135
  • SPREAD: Patriots -3.0 | O/U: 33.5

Why Ali is taking the Patriots: There is a legitimate chance the Patriots are in possession of the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft after this weekend. If you thought the noise around who’s playing QB for New England was loud now, just imagine the rancor that scenario would generate. Now, the Giants have their own set of questions under center, the most immediate being how Tommy DeVito will fare against a Bill Belichick-led defense notorious for befuddling rookie passers (24-6 as Pats HC). Despite all of New England’s shortcomings — and the team has many — I’ll take the G.O.A.T. coach over the kid QB eight times out of 10.

  • WHERE: Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tenn.)
  • WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | FOX
  • MONEYLINE: Panthers: +158 | Titans: -190
  • SPREAD: Titans -3.5 | O/U: 37.0

Why Dan is taking the Titans: Both rookie QB-led teams have looked bad for three straight weeks, with neither squad breaking 16 points in any game during that stretch. I have to pick someone to win, though. The Titans are at home, where they have been pretty good this year (3-1). Meanwhile, Carolina has yet to win on the road this season, with an average margin of 13.2 points in those five games. If ever there were a time to snap that streak, it’s in this matchup, but let’s say Tennessee gets back to pounding the rock with Derrick Henry and finds a way to escape with a W.

  • WHERE: State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Ariz.)
  • WHEN: 4:05 p.m. ET | FOX
  • MONEYLINE: Rams: -110 | Cardinals: -110
  • SPREAD: PICK | O/U: 44.5

Why Dan is taking the Rams: There are some important things we don’t know about this game as of this writing, including whether Cooper Kupp (ankle) is going to play. I went back and forth on this one, and I won’t be surprised if a plucky outfit led by Kyler Murray finds a way to win even if Kupp plays. But Arizona’s defense is thinning out, with starters Kyzir White and Leki Fotu landing on injured reserve this week, while the Rams are expected to get Kyren Williams back. I’ll go with Sean McVay’s crew in another nail-biter.

  • WHERE: Empower Field at Mile High (Denver)
  • WHEN: 4:05 p.m. ET | FOX
  • MONEYLINE: Browns: -110 | Broncos: -110
  • SPREAD: PICK | O/U: 35.0

Why Dan is taking the Broncos: The Browns just got an offensive coordinator fired, but they’re going to be facing a slightly more competent group this week. Denver’s last loss came on Oct. 12. The 1-5 start seems to be completely in the rearview. In a tight, low-scoring affair, I trust Russell Wilson — the NFL leader with a 19:4 TD-to-INT ratio — a bit more than Dorian Thompson-Robinson to take care of the ball. The Broncos are 4-1 when he doesn’t turn it over and 1-4 when he does. The margin for error is slim, so Cleveland could easily keep rolling if Russ gets cooked by Jim Schwartz’s defense.

  • WHERE: Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
  • WHEN: 4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
  • MONEYLINE: Chiefs: -430 | Raiders: +328
  • SPREAD: Chiefs -9.0 | O/U: 43.0

Why Gennaro is taking the Chiefs: One of the biggest surprises of the 2023 season: Kansas City’s offense ISN’T extraordinary. Shoot, lately, it isn’t even ordinary. The Chiefs haven’t scored a single point after halftime in a month. That’s right: Three straight second-half shutouts. In related news, reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes has looked remarkably unremarkable in Year 7, posting the worst numbers of his starting career and failing to even reach 200 yards passing in either of the past two games. What better way to break out of a rut than a weekend in Vegas? No, seriously! In his career, Mahomes is 9-1 against the Raiders with a sparkling 112.5 passer rating. Now, I don’t expect an earth-scorching effort from Kansas City, as this receiving corps isn’t going to resolve its shortcoming overnight. But the offense will indeed hold up its end of the bargain — in both halves — while Steve Spagnuolo’s unit continues to operate as one of the best defenses in football.

  • WHERE: Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia)
  • WHEN: 4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
  • MONEYLINE: Bills: +143 | Eagles: -170
  • SPREAD: Eagles -3.0 | O/U: 48.5

Why Brooke is taking the Eagles: No team is playing better all-around football than the Eagles right now, with our last impression of them being a near-perfect half to complete a comeback win at Arrowhead. But there’s also no time to get complacent amid a gauntlet in the schedule. Jalen Hurts has played exceptionally well since Week 7, completing 72.8 of his passes and throwing 12 TD strikes against just two picks — not to mention his four rushing scores. That starting point is about the same time the Bills began their slump, but Josh Allen looked much better last week under new OC Joe Brady and it’s possible he takes another positive step against Philly’s bottom-five pass defense. Even if Allen’s clicking with Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis and Co., will it be enough to match a red-hot Hurts at the Linc? The 8 Ball reads: Outlook not so good.

  • WHERE: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, Calif.)
  • WHEN: 8:20 p.m. ET | NBC, Universo, NFL+
  • MONEYLINE: Ravens: -190 | Chargers: +158
  • SPREAD: Ravens -3.5 | O/U: 47.0

Why Dan is taking the Ravens: It’s never a good thing when a team is badly in need of a win to stay in the playoff picture and one of the leading MVP contenders is standing in the way. On top of that, the Chargers need a plan to slow down Lamar Jackson without their best defensive player. The Ravens have found a way to self-destruct at times this season, but they seem like amateurs in that category compared to the Bolts. Los Angeles has never lost three consecutive games in one regular season since Brandon Staley was hired in 2021. I expect that to change on Sunday night.

MONDAY, NOV. 27

  • WHERE: U.S. Bank Stadium (Minneapolis)
  • WHEN: 8:15 p.m. ET | ABC, ESPN, ESPN Deportes, NFL+
  • MONEYLINE: Bears: +150 | Vikings: -178
  • SPREAD: Vikings -3.5 | O/U: 43.0

Why Tom is taking the Vikings: Maybe I’m just a sucker for the Joshua Dobbs story. Even so, these teams are close enough that I feel OK picking the home squad to rediscover its winning ways against a Chicago organization that has been short on good mojo this year. Denver stopped Dobbs in large part by turning him over twice, but the Bears don’t have the same facility for takeaways (tied for 21st in the NFL with 13) that the Broncos do (tied for second with 19). Justin Fields could make more positive strides, just not in the win column this week.

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