Shock winner or the usual suspects? The experts’ view on the NRL finals

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Our team of NRL experts answer the big questions before a fascinating finals series. Who will win the grand final? Who will be the big star? And which team could spring the biggest surprise yet in a season full of them?

Paul Gallen, Phil Gould, Paul Vautin, Johnathan Thurston, Darren Lockyer, Brad Fittler, Billy Slater, Billie Eder, Nick Wright, Michael Chammas, Roy Ward, Andrew Webster, Dan Walsh, Adrian Proszenko and Adam Pengilly all have their say on how the finals will play out.

Who is going to win the competition and why?

Paul Gallen: The Sharks. They will learn from last year’s finals mistakes and go all the way.

Phil Gould: The Panthers. Big-game experience, big-game players, and they’re proven at this part of the season. They’re also the best defensive team in the competition.

Paul Vautin: Melbourne Storm. Craig Bellamy knows what it takes to win comps and Ryan Papenhuyzen is back to provide the X-factor.

Johnathan Thurston: It’s got to be the Broncos. A powerful forward pack, one of the smartest halves in the competition – Adam Reynolds – leading the way, and their X-factor Reece Walsh.

Darren Lockyer: A mix of premiership players, Origin players and talented kids with desire makes Brisbane the team to beat.

Brad Fittler: Penrith. They’re the best defensive team in the competition, which will prove vital.

Billy Slater: The Broncos. They tick all the premiership boxes and have an exciting style to boot.

Billie Eder: Everyone keeps talking about Penrith and the three-peat premiership, but I don’t think they’ll lift the trophy this year – in 2023 it will be the Broncos. They’re the only team that can stop Penrith.

From left: Kalyn Ponga, Reece Walsh, Ryan Papenhuyzen, Nathan Cleary and Nicho Hynes.Credit: NRL Photos

The Panthers have a system – a formula that works like magic, especially when someone gets injured because they always have someone to slot into the side, but that’s exactly why the Broncos can pull them apart. Brisbane are slippery and unpredictable. Reece Walsh is the best example of this – he’s explosive and has the freedom to move across the pitch. The team is stacked with players like Ezra Mam, Herbie Farnworth and Payne Haas who are playing their best football at the right time and will be hard to beat come grand final day.

Nick Wright: The Brisbane Broncos. They have proven to be the competition’s most lethal attack this year, scoring more points than any other side as the likes of Reece Walsh, Ezra Mam and Selwyn Cobbo have run rampant.

Whether their defence can hold up to the likes of Penrith, and if their flourishing offence can penetrate the Panthers’ famous wall, will be a question that may not be answered until grand final day. To get to that stage, Brisbane will have to do what they have failed to do since 2009 – defeat the Melbourne Storm at Suncorp Stadium. They missed the chance to end the hoodoo in the season’s final round, with both teams depleted by injuries, suspensions, and player restings. But this team is a different Broncos beast. There is a real air of confidence about them.

Despite making the fourth-most errors of any team, they have continued to back themselves against any rival and throw caution to the wind. If they keep playing so unafraid, there is no reason why their 17-year title drought cannot end.

Roy Ward: Penrith Panthers. I can’t see past the Panthers winning again as they have a level of experience, belief and depth that appears above the rest of the competition, although injuries do bring them back to the field a little. Dylan Edwards has been such a rock this season at fullback and their forwards or outside backs just seem to find something extra when the opposition looks to be gaining the upper hand. As much as I’d love to make the case for the Broncos, Storm or anyone else to take the title off the Panthers, I can’t see it happening.

Dan Walsh: Penrith, provided Jarome Luai returns for a preliminary final. Adding his X-factor to their near-perfect systems – with and without the ball – just makes them too good once again.

If not, there’s a hint of vulnerability to them with Brisbane and Melbourne best-placed to strike. Both have a handful of the NRL’s best attacking players and playmaking spines to win a grand final.

Andrew Webster: It’s the Broncos’ time to shine. There was a reason Wayne Bennett didn’t want to leave in 2018 – he could see the enormous potential of the young players coming through. All they needed was someone to steer them around the park and, to that end, if Adam Reynolds can stay fit, Brisbane have the youthful hunger to win their first premiership since 2006. I’m worried the Luai-less Panthers will run out of puff.

Michael Chammas: The answer is the same as it was before a ball was kicked this year. The Penrith Panthers will cement their place as the greatest team in the NRL era with a three-peat of premierships. The only thing that can stop them is if they upset the football gods and are hampered by injuries to key players. That, or a red-hot Reece Walsh.

Adrian Proszenko: This would be an incredibly even competition … if Penrith weren’t in it. They have the depth to overcome injuries – Jack Cogger will do the job if Jarome Luai doesn’t play again this year – as well as plenty of experience playing in September and October. Most importantly, they aren’t satisfied with what they have already achieved. A three-peat awaits.

Adam Pengilly: Penrith. They won’t leave Sydney for the entire finals series if – nah, when – they beat the Warriors this week, and even Jarome Luai’s injury won’t be enough to stop the greatest team of the NRL era. Brisbane, and only Brisbane, are capable of stopping this juggernaut. But it’s going to have to take a special Reece Walsh performance to do it. I just can’t see it.

Billy Smith and the Roosters celebrate their victory over Souths on Friday.Credit: Getty

Which team could cause a shock in the finals series and why?

Gallen: If the Sharks can’t get the job done, then Penrith will win it.

Gould: The Roosters could win a couple of games during September, despite looking like missing out on the top eight a month or so ago. They have the roster.

Vautin: The Roosters have the roster and form to make a charge.

Thurston: Roosters. Five wins on the trot and they may have found their groove.

Lockyer: Roosters. They’re starting to get their best players on the field and building some momentum just at the right time.

Fittler: I think the Knights are capable of springing a surprise.

Slater: Roosters. They have some big-game players and are finding a bit of form at the right time.

Eder: The Knights will cause a headache. They’ve won their past nine games, and I can’t see them losing to the Raiders this week (who they’ve mowed over twice this year). That means they’re set to face the loser of the Panthers v Warriors game, and if Kalyn Ponga is “on”, either of those teams could have a problem.

The team has finally found its stride, and the likes of Bradman Best and Phoenix Crossland have improved heading towards the finals. I think teams underestimated Newcastle after a few shocking and close losses, but they’ve managed to topple the Warriors and Storm, and they’ve improved since then.

The Knights are on a major winning streak heading into the finals.Credit: Getty

Wright: The Newcastle Knights. It would be a far stretch for the Knights’ winning ways to take them all the way to the top, but they have a real chance of reaching a preliminary final. A home final against the Raiders should go their way, likely pitting them against the Warriors across the ditch in the semi-finals. New Zealand have completely transformed under coach Andrew Webster, building their game off the kind of gritty defence that wins premierships.

However, with Kalyn Ponga in career-best form, and the brand of football the Knights have been playing, they may possess enough flair defensive fortitude to send the resurgent outfit out in straight sets, much like Cronulla’s revival last year. That path would pit them against the Panthers, which may be where their ambitions come to an end, but it will nevertheless be an incredible comeback from a side that – less than three months ago – was floundering.

Ward: Does a less-experienced Storm making a run count as a shock? I can see them in the grand final with Jahrome Hughes, Cameron Munster and Harry Grant leading the way, as it would be just like Melbourne to do a smash-and-grab job at Suncorp Stadium on Friday and then win a home preliminary final in front of a packed crowd at AAMI Park. But, as a team, they have been mighty inconsistent this season, so three finals wins looks like too much.

Ryan Papenhuyzen is a great unknown for the Storm as his comeback continues to gain pace. Could the Clive Churchill medallist turn a prelim or grand final match against the Panthers or Broncos? You wouldn’t rule it out but any Storm run will need skipper Christian Welch, Nelson Asofa-Solomona and their young forward pack to play beyond their years.

Walsh: The Roosters. The attack that’s floundered all season is suddenly firing more and more with every game. Any team with James Tedesco, Sam Walker and Brandon Smith finally pulling in the right direction is going to be a handful, and Joey Manu’s return out wide is a game-changer. I can see them ending a couple of rivals’ seasons but ultimately falling just short of the decider given Jared Waerea-Hargreaves’ absence.

Webster: Only a club as strong as the Roosters can withstand the off-field distractions, and on-field injuries, they’ve endured this season and still find themselves standing in the premiership rounds. They’ve got September specialists like James Tedesco and Luke Keary firing at the right time of year, although the lengthy suspension of Jared Waerea-Hargreaves hurts. Wouldn’t surprise me to see them reach the final four.

Chammas: People have admired what the New Zealand Warriors have achieved this season. It’s the feelgood story the NRL needed after what the club and its players sacrificed during the COVID years. Few, though, expect much more from them in the finals series. They won’t beat Penrith in week one but don’t be surprised if they ride the wave of a home final victory in Auckland in week two of the finals to go all the way to the decider. Shaun Johnson is in the form of his life and they have plenty of momentum.

Proszenko: When will people learn to stop writing off Melbourne? Every year they lose key players, who are replaced with lesser names. However, nobody can get players to play above their pay packets quite like Craig Bellamy. They already have a stacked spine with Cameron Munster, Jahrome Hughes and Harry Grant, and now Ryan Papenhuyzen comes back into the side to add the X-factor that has been missing. The Storm pose the biggest threat to another Penrith procession.

Craig Bellamy.Credit: Getty Images

Pengilly: There is no better sound in rugby league than when that famous chant shakes the walls of McDonald Jones Stadium: “New-castle, New-castle, New-castle!” And the Knights are on a serious roll. Injuries to Kalyn Ponga and Jackson Hastings came at the wrong time, but they’ve landed on the right side of the finals draw.

I expect the Raiders to make the elimination final a lot closer than people think, but the Knights can get through and then topple the Warriors to make a preliminary final. Maybe we’ll get to see Reece Walsh and Ponga go head to head again? Yes, please.

Who is the player we’ll be talking about after the finals series and why?

Gallen: Nicho Hynes. He’ll control games for the Sharks.

Gould: Isaah Yeo from the Panthers. He’s the link to everything for Penrith. I don’t think there will be too many surprises during the finals series.

Vautin: Ryan Papenhuyzen has returned at the right time for the Storm.

Thurston: Reece Walsh. A big-game player who creates opportunities out of nothing with his speed and vision.

Lockyer: Reece Walsh. Teams can’t handle his speed across the ground.

Fittler: Liam Martin is the player we will be talking about.

Liam Martin makes a charge for Penrith.Credit: Getty

Slater: Reece Walsh. He consistently delivered big moments this season. I can’t see September being any different.

Eder: Providing he’s fit to play, Kalyn Ponga is the player to watch. He’s been electric these past two months – he sees gaps in a defensive line before they even appear, and when he teams up with Bradman Best and Greg Marzhew on that left edge, the points flow. After a shaky start to the season with concussion and a positional switch, Ponga has found his rhythm at fullback and will prove hard to beat come finals.

Wright: Payne Haas. Remember when Jason Taumalolo put the Cowboys on his back and guided North Queensland to a shock 2017 grand final? Payne Haas is destined to achieve the same. The man lauded as arguably the game’s best prop has declared he wants premierships, a key part of his decision to re-sign with Brisbane. Now he has the platform to achieve that, the fierce competitor in him will no doubt come out. Haas has spoken of his desire to embody the great Glenn Lazarus, who spearheaded his side to five titles in his career. The time has come for Haas to prove he has the same drive, and we’re tipping him to leave the rugby league world in even greater awe of his exploits than it already is.

Shaun Johnson has been at the heart of a remarkable season for the Warriors.Credit: Getty

Ward: Shaun Johnson and/or Nicho Hynes. I’d love it to be Shaun Johnson firing the “Wahs” to a win or two in the finals but I think facing Penrith away in the first week and Tohu Harris battling a back problem will be too much to deal with for a side just back in the finals. But if ever there was a year for the Warriors to cause a shock, this is it. Otherwise, I can’t go past Nicho Hynes hitting his straps and driving the Cronulla Sharks to a run through the finals. There are few better playmakers in this comp than Hynes when he’s firing and has dangerous runners alongside him.

Walsh: Nelson Asofa-Solomona. Things just happen around the NRL’s biggest human. Halfbacks get trampled. Front-rowers get cranky. Referees get edgy. The big man is box office and a potential game-breaker for the Storm, especially when they let him roam on the edge.

Webster: Reece Walsh. The kid can play. Have you noticed?

Proszenko: Jarryd Hayne carried an ordinary Parramatta side all the way to the 2009 decider. Reece Walsh, with some help from higher quality teammates around him, has the ability to do something similar.

Chammas: Shaun Johnson. The halfback has turned back the clock in 2023 and is a chance of winning the Dally M Medal. If he can take the Warriors on a run to the grand final, he will finally prove to the knockers that he has the skill to mix it with the best. Very few players are more entertaining than an in-form Johnson.

Pengilly: Dominic Young. I tried to interview him once. My neck is still hurting. Speed, power, size and athleticism, so of course next year he’s off to the Roosters. He could be a freak – and could score a lot of tries in the next few weeks – if the Knights, who are attacking better than any team in the competition, go deep into this finals series.

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