How the Blues can cause the biggest upset in a preliminary final since 1999

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Carlton have been here before, entering a seemingly unwinnable preliminary final to leave with a ticket to the AFL grand final.

It was some time ago, as every Carlton fan knows, on the long road back to September action. The 1999 preliminary final put the Blues before an intimidating foe – an Essendon team that had lost just four times during the home-and-away season. Kevin Sheedy’s Bombers had destroyed Sydney by 69 points in the qualifying final a fortnight earlier.

The moment that defied all expectations – Fraser Brown’s bear-grip tackle in the centre of the MCG – is part of football folklore.

Fraser Brown tackles Dean Wallis in the dying stages of the 1999 preliminary final.Credit: Channel Seven

History repeats.

Once again, Carlton command low expectations from those outside their manic fan base. The real question is, do Michael Voss’ current Blues believe in themselves?

In 1999, Carlton full-back of the century Stephen Silvagni garnered that critical belief with a famous three-quarter-time address.

Fraser Brown celebrates Carlton’s win in the 1999 preliminary final.Credit: Ray Kennedy

“We were probably in a prelim by default, in some ways,” Silvagni recalls. “We didn’t have an outstanding season. I can’t remember how many games we had won, but I guess it was an opportunity; if we won the game we were through to a grand final. It was getting the group together and saying, ‘Look, we may never get this opportunity again to have a chance to play in a grand final because they are so hard to get to’.”

Carlton produced something special that day, special because no one gave them a chance. It is the reason Carlton supporters cherish that preliminary final as if it were a premiership.

Voss knows his team must find something to match that monumental effort on Saturday night to beat the Brisbane Lions, who are undefeated at the Gabba this season.

So, how do Carlton again win the unwinnable game? There is a way.

It starts with a mindset. Voss must set this mental state with his team. He can emphasise Carlton’s advantage over the Lions through their preparation and the Lions’ lack of match-play.

Mindset: The Blues will be match-hardened for their preliminary final.Credit: Getty Images

With the week off before the finals and another week off after the qualifying win against Port Adelaide, the Lions have played little football in the past month. Conversely, Carlton have become battle-hardened by beating Sydney and Melbourne in consecutive weeks in contested and brutal finals.

Midfielder George Hewett explained why this is an advantage for his Carlton teammates on 3AW on Monday. “Brisbane has played one game in three weeks, so we can look at it as though we are match-fit,” he said.

The Lions’ record at the Gabba during the home-and-away season is undeniable. But the Lions’ finals record at home is underwhelming, with four wins from the past eight.

Despite the richness of talent in the Brisbane line-up, the Lions rarely put sides away, leaving the opposition constantly feeling it is still in the game.

They dominated the statistics against Port Adelaide in the qualifying final. But the visitors hit the front in the third quarter, and, if not for inaccuracy, Port Adelaide might have built a commanding lead.

In the round 23 win against Adelaide, the Lions held a comfortable 16-point lead at the last change. The Crows had seven shots to two in the last quarter, and lost by a goal.

In games with high stakes, the Lions have revealed a soft underbelly. Forwards Eric Hipwood and Joe Daniher can be erratic; co-captain Harris Andrews is laconic; star midfielder Lachie Neale can be shut down; veteran Dayne Zorko is prone to undisciplined outbursts.

Carlton must be in the face of the opposition. They must exploit these weaknesses.

The additional worry for the Lions is the fitness of key defender Jackson Payne, who has been in a moon boot this week and has not trained due to a foot injury.

Payne is the obvious match-up for Coleman medallist Charlie Curnow. Curnow has been soundly beaten in his past three games and is overdue for a colossal performance. He needs to kick four or more goals for the Blues to win, and this almost becomes a formality should Payne be ruled out through injury.

Payne’s absence could allow out-of-form forward Harry McKay to exploit a height mismatch deep inside Brisbane’s defence.

Carlton’s other advantage is in the midfield. The Blues have been the best midfield team for the past two seasons, and the Lions are vulnerable in this zone. In the past six games, Carlton rank fifth for points scored from clearances and third for points scored from centre-bounce clearances.

By contrast, the Lions rank 13th and 17th in the same categories. They stand fourth for scores conceded, fourth for opposition score per inside-50 and fifth for defending ball movement.

The Lions are the No.1 team for punishing the opposition on turnover. They rank second for moving the ball from the defensive 50, meaning Carlton will be in big trouble if they are caught in a transition game.

Just as he thrived as a player, Voss must make this game a contested scrap.

All the pressure is on Brisbane Lions coach Chris Fagan and his star-studded team; no one expects them to lose.

It will be the most significant upset in a preliminary final this century if Carlton relive that remarkable day against Essendon. If the Blues do it again, watch Lygon Street become the place for Blues fans to party like it’s 1999.

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